Do you struggle with confirmation bias? Do you even know what confirmation bias is? In this episode I want to delve into the concept of confirmation bias and how what you already know and believe can influence you to make poor decisions.
“The first rule is not to get fooled, and you are the easiest person to fool.”
—Richard Feynman
The Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster
In 1986, NASA's Space Shuttle Challenger exploded shortly after launch, killing all seven crew members on board. The disaster was a result of a failure in the O-rings, which were not designed to perform in the unusually cold weather on the day of the launch. Engineers from Morton Thiokol, the contractor responsible for the O-rings, had raised concerns about the risks of launching in such cold temperatures. However, due to the high pressure to maintain the launch schedule, these warnings were downplayed.
NASA officials and decision-makers were influenced by confirmation bias. They focused on past successful launches, where the O-rings had functioned without issue, even though those launches occurred under different conditions. The confirmation bias led them to dismiss the engineers' concerns as overly cautious, as the evidence that supported the safety of previous launches aligned with their belief that the Challenger would be successful.
The Challenger disaster occurred because the decision-makers did not adequately consider the evidence that contradicted their belief in the shuttle's safety. The disaster highlighted the dangers of ignoring critical data that doesn’t fit preexisting beliefs, especially in high-stakes situations.
The disaster led to a significant investigation, resulting in changes to NASA’s decision-making processes and safety protocols. It remains a powerful example of how confirmation bias can lead to catastrophic outcomes when critical warnings and evidence are ignored. This tragedy illustrates the importance of challenging assumptions and actively seeking out information that contradicts our expectations, especially in situations where lives are at stake or significant risks are involved.
Understanding Confirmation Bias
First, a definition: “Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that aligns with our preexisting beliefs, while ignoring or minimizing evidence that contradicts them.”
Often we enter situations with ideas about what is going on and the best way to solve it. Because of the knowledge and experience we already have, we have a particular lens through we view the situation. This lens colors and filters things in a way that can make it challenging to consider that how we might be viewing the situation could be wrong.
If you’ve ever been to a live theater production, you’ll see that there are lights of different colors. When these lights shine on different objects they can change what an object looks like. For example a red light focused on a yellow object can make it look green. Just as this simple filter can alter a fundamental attribute of an object, our own filters make it harder for us to see things as they really are.
In a more concrete example, when we have an argument with someone, we might assume what a person’s motive is in disagreeing with us. Because we already think we know why they’re arguing with us, we apply a filter and tailor our points and comebacks to counter what we assume their motive to be, often derailing or prolonging the argument rather than working together for a resolution.
What We Already Know
The first part of confirmation bias is that we already have a set of knowledge and experiences that we rely on to try and understand what is happening, and how we can resolve a problem. There is nothing wrong with using these because this is how we can begin to examine and understand what is really happening. The problem is that we put too much weight on what we already know, and we look for more information and data to support our existing opinions and beliefs.
Socrates, famous for his ability to approach conversations with an open mind, said, “I know that I am intelligent because I know that I know nothing.” What he meant by this was that he would do his best to approach any situation with an open mind, or what they call in Zen Buddhism, “the beginners mind”. He was willing to put his preexisting beliefs and ideas aside, and begin if he knew nothing about the topic. Through questions and dialog, they would explore something from scratch, and work through building a better understanding of problem or idea. Epictetus echoed this sentiment, saying, "If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid."
Discounting Counter Information
The second part of confirmation bias is that we will discount information that runs counter to what we already know and believe. Because we get attached to certain assumptions and ideas, we may ignore something that doesn’t support what we already think is the best solution. As Epictetus taught, "It is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows.”
One of the main reasons we discount information that doesn’t support our presuppositions is that we don’t like to be wrong. Being wrong feels like failure and it doesn’t feel good, so we’ll discount anything that disproves our idea. That fear of failure can cause us to dig our heels in even when we might harbor doubts about our position. We want to be right even if it’s not the right solution. We see this in everyday situations where someone is presented with irrefutable evidence and rather than change their mind, will say something like, “Well this is just my opinion and I don’t care what the evidence says.”
The Stoic Emphasis on Objectivity
So how do we get better at countering confirmation bias in ourselves?
One of the central tenets of Stoicism is the pursuit of objective truth. The Stoics encourage us to examine our judgments and challenge our assumptions, even at the most basic level. Within Stoicism, there’s the concept of Impressions and Assent. What this means that whenever we have a thought or sense something through our five sense, we have an impression. At this point we should be willing to question even what we sensed before we assent or agree to what we actually sensed.
As Epictetus explains, “You can process in your intellect and senses a wealth of thoughts and impressions simultaneously. There are impressions that you assent to, others that you reject; sometimes you suspend judgement altogether.” Simply put, we need to take a moment to examine our impressions before something we’ve thought or sensed is accepted as true.
The Role of Rationality
Stoicism encourages us to use rationality and reason when dealing with challenges. Epictetus taught, “For what does reason purport to do? ‘Establish what is true, eliminate what is false and suspend judgement in doubtful cases.’ ... What else does reason prescribe? ‘To accept the consequence of what has been admitted to be correct.’” By using logic over emotions or our opinions we are better able to examine a situation with less bias, and accept the outcome even if we don’t like it.
The Role of Emotions
So where do emotions fit into all this? Stoicism often gets misunderstood as advocating for emotionless rationality. However, true Stoic rationality includes understanding the role emotions play in shaping our judgments. Emotions aren’t the enemy, but rather signals that can guide us when we approach them with clarity and reason. We have gut instincts and intuition for a reason, but they need to be balanced with rationality for better decision making. The reason why we defer to rationality is that emotions often reinforce confirmation bias, leading us to selectively interpret information based on how it makes us feel. Instead of rejecting emotions outright, we can use them as a starting point for deeper inquiry and reflection.
Self-Reflection and Self-Examination
Stoicism encourages regular self-reflection as a way to examine and refine our beliefs. Through meditation and journaling we can take the time to get to know our own minds, and examine the thoughts, ideas, and opinions that we hold. By practicing self-examination, we can begin to identify and address our own biases.
“Do you have reason? I have. Why then do you not use it?”, wrote Marcus Aurelius reflecting on his own thoughts and behaviors in his "Meditations," asking himself whether he was acting in accordance with reason or being swayed by irrational impulses. He also encouraged himself to, “Constantly and, if it be possible, on the occasion of every impression on the soul, apply to it the principles of physics, ethics, and logic.”
Negative Visualization as a Tool Against Confirmation Bias
Stoics practice “premeditatio malorum” (negative visualization) to prepare for potential challenges and setbacks. As Seneca explains, “Everyone faces up more bravely to a thing for which he has long prepared himself, sufferings, even, being withstood if they have been trained for in advance. Those who are unprepared, on the other hand, are panic-stricken by the most insignificant happenings.”
By imagining the worst that could happen helps counteract confirmation bias by encouraging us to consider scenarios that don’t align with our preferred outcomes. Intentionally visualizing what could go wrong, forces us to confront and evaluate contrary evidence. It also helps to face up to challenges more calmly because we aware of outcomes that we might not have considered, allowing us to not be taken by surprise.
Embracing the Opposite
A different angle we can take when dealing with challenges is ask ourselves, “What if the opposite was true?” If we already have preconceived idea, considering the opposite can help widen our perspective and find holes in our idea. It can help bring to light assumptions that we have made and gain a deeper understanding of the problem at hand. As Marcus Aurelius reminds us, "If anyone can refute me—show me I’m making a mistake or looking at things from the wrong perspective—I’ll gladly change. It’s the truth I’m after, and the truth never harmed anyone."
As an example of this process, former President Bill Clinton used to debate multiple sides of an issue with his aide, Sydney Blumenthal, to ensure that he understood the issue more thoroughly and to gain a better understanding of his opponents point of view. This allowed him to speak in depth about an issue, and to respond to criticism or possible weak points with his ideas.
Conclusion
The Stoics were committed to rational thought, self-reflection, and the pursuit of objective truth. By incorporating these practices into our own lives, we can reduce the influence of confirmation bias in our lives, leading to more balanced and informed decision-making. The Stoic approach is not about denying emotions or holding rigid beliefs but about cultivating a mindset that is open, adaptable, and grounded in reality, helping us navigate the complexities of cognitive biases and lead more rational, fulfilling lives.
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